Pooi, Ah Hin * and Koh, You Beng (2016) Prediction of the start of next recession. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics, 6 (1). pp. 21-29. ISSN 2200-7970
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Abstract
The future value of the binary recession variable is modeled to be dependent on the present and past values of a set of m US economic variables selected from a pool of 14 variables via a conditional distribution which is derived from an -dimensional power-normal distribution. The mean together with the 2.5% and 97.5% points of the conditional distribution are used to predict the start of the next US recession. When and , some of the models can provide fairly good indicators for the start of the next US recession.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | 2nd author is with Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Malaya |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5601 Accounting H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Sunway University > School of Mathematical Sciences > Department of Applied Statistics Others > Non Sunway Academics |
| Depositing User: | Dr Janaki Sinnasamy |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Dec 2016 08:06 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Mar 2019 03:30 |
| URI: | http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/id/eprint/431 |
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